deadrisk

Analysis

The Third That Gets Built

The press counts the data centres that stall. The contractors who build them count the ones that start, in backlogs booked once a site has its money and its permits. Comfort Systems, the only one to report a quarter ending in September, added more signed work in three months than in the six before. TEXXR has logged no story on any of these firms since August.

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Coverage intelligence, not investment advice — methodology.
The Third That Gets Built
The card this piece shares as. Coverage data from TEXXR; fundamentals from SEC filings.

Counted when they stall

TEXXR’s record has no shortage of data centres that fail to get built. In September Bloomberg reported Data Center Watch’s count: 45 projects worth $68 billion blocked or delayed by local opposition from April to June. In October the FT reported RegLayer’s tally of more than 47 large US projects delayed, withdrawn or blocked this year, and Bernstein’s view that about 35% of the planned US pipeline is credible. On 26 October The Information reported that tenants now ask for late fees above $5 million a day, up from $1 million in the spring.

What the record lacks is a count of the third that does get built. That count exists. The mechanical and electrical contractors who build the halls publish it every quarter as backlog, and TEXXR’s sources do not report it. Eight of the nine we track sit in our builders basket; Quanta sits with the grid makers.

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Stories in TEXXR's record from 4 August to 27 October that name any of nine data-centre contractors: Comfort Systems, EMCOR, MasTec, Sterling, Dycom, MYR, Argan, IES or Quanta
322 records mention data centres in the same span. Across all years, one Wall Street Journal story, logged twice, names any of the nine in a data-centre context

On 3 August DeadRisk’s review of names we hold but have not written found this layer dark: two records on Comfort Systems, both the same Journal story; one on Sterling, the same story; one on EMCOR, about an index; none on MasTec, Dycom, MYR, Argan or IES. Run again today, the searches return the same records and nothing newer. “Electricians” returns no record dated after 4 August. “Data center construction” returns four, about a Finnish halt order and a voter poll. The money and the labour shortage are covered. The firms doing the work are not.

What a backlog counts

A contractor books work once someone has decided to build. Argan, which builds gas power plants, says it “typically” adds a contract to backlog “upon receiving a notice to proceed from the project owner”, weighing “the degree of project financing and permitting”. Comfort Systems says its backlog is revenue “likely to be reflected in our operating results over the next six to 12 months”. MasTec counts 18 months ahead.

So a backlog counts sites that have cleared the hurdles the delay tallies record, and that will be built within a year or so. A site that loses its funding issues no notice to proceed. If Bernstein is right that a third of the pipeline is credible, the contractors’ books are the nearest public count of which third.

The one book closed after the summer

Of the nine, only Comfort Systems has reported a quarter ending 30 September. Its backlog reached $17.81 billion, from $14.06 billion at 30 June and $11.94 billion at the end of 2025: $3.75 billion added in the third quarter against $2.12 billion in the first half. Technology customers paid 60.8% of its third-quarter revenue, against 45.8% a year earlier, and the company says demand has been “especially strong in the technology sector, particularly for data centers”.

The rise is narrow. Of $3.67 billion in same-store backlog growth in the quarter, $3.58 billion came from technology work at four operations, three in Texas and one in Virginia. A count built on a few large jobs moves in steps, and one cancelled campus would show in it.

On 25 October Musk said debt markets had “almost entirely” shut off credit to companies with little revenue outside AI data centres. He is an interested party, and Comfort Systems’ quarter closed almost four weeks before he spoke, so its book cannot answer him. It says only that through September, funded work was reaching sites faster than before.

The rest of the layer

The others last reported quarters ending in the summer. Each states its backlog its own way.

Contractor As of Backlog, as stated Change What it says about data centres
EMCOR 30 Jun $17.14bn RPO +43.9% on a year Biggest rise from “several data center construction contracts”
Sterling 30 Jun $4.33bn signed +116% (+50% organic) Data centres, factories and chip plants: 92% of E-Infrastructure backlog
IES 30 Jun $4.5bn +91% in nine months Training teams “to serve the data center end market”
Dycom 1 Aug $12.24bn +53.2% Bought a firm that cables inside data centres
Quanta 30 Jun $53.44bn +49% on a year No data-centre split
MasTec 30 Jun $21.4bn over 18 months +30% on a year Bought Superior, a data-centre electrical contractor
MYR 30 Jun $3.16bn +19.6% on a year Data centres among its commercial markets
Argan 31 Jul $2.5bn down from $2.9bn in January Builds the gas plants, not the halls

Every book but one grew. The exception builds power plants. Argan does not say why its book shrank, but it lists what sets the pace of new awards: “financing conditions, permitting timelines, equipment availability”. It says lead times for large gas turbines and transformers “have extended meaningfully beyond historical norms as manufacturer order books have expanded”. The firms that wire and cool the halls hold far more signed work than a year ago. The firm that builds the power waits on the turbine queue that GE Vernova’s order book measures. That is the power wall seen from the contractors’ side.

What to watch

  • Sterling on Wednesday, EMCOR and MasTec on Thursday. The first books from the rest of the layer for a quarter ending after the summer. If credit has shut for data-centre builders, these are where it should show: as awards that stop arriving.
  • GE Vernova and Vertiv, also on Wednesday. Their orders count equipment; the contractors count the sites it goes into. GE Vernova sells turbine slots years ahead, and a contractor’s book turns over within a year or so. Gear orders that keep rising while contractor books flatten would mean gear bought for sites not yet starting. Eaton sells the switchgear into the same halls.
  • Argan’s next quarter. Whether plant awards come back, or the shortfall of power to feed the halls widens.
  • Comfort Systems’ spread. Whether next quarter’s growth reaches beyond four operations, or stays a few big jobs in Texas and Virginia.

Sources

Dates are the publisher’s where the page shows one, otherwise TEXXR’s.