ASML · one lens
Benjamin Graham on ASML
The financials clear Graham's bar cleanly; the variable that moves them most was set by a ministry, not a market.
Graham’s habit was to price a business off its own disclosed record — a full income account, a multi-year earnings average, a demonstrated dividend history — and demand a gap between that number and the quote before calling anything an investment rather than a speculation (Security Analysis). Run against ASML, that habit works cleanly on one axis and stalls on another.
The axis where it works: ASML files exactly the kind of disclosure Graham spent Security Analysis demanding of industrials before the SEC required it, and the growth in the number is real rather than promised — its 2026 sales guidance has been raised twice this year, most recently to €43B–€45B in July, on results that beat estimates rather than needing a beat next quarter to justify the price (texxr.com/1172967). That’s a different shape from the growth-stock pattern Graham flagged in The Intelligent Investor, where the price depends on a rate of growth that eventually always slows (The Intelligent Investor); by June 2026 ASML’s stock was up 64% year to date but still trailing the broader chip sector, not running ahead of what the results support (texxr.com/1170590).
The axis where it stalls: Graham’s margin of safety assumes the swing factor in a multi-year average is economic — a weak year, a demand trough — the kind of adversity his bond-style “depression test” is built to survive. ASML’s biggest recent swing wasn’t economic. China went from four straight quarters as its largest market, roughly half of sales, to a guided 20% of 2026 revenue (texxr.com/869689, texxr.com/1162255), on a regulatory decision rather than a shift in demand. Graham’s answer to any unpriceable uncertainty was consistent — widen the margin, don’t forecast the variable — but nothing in his arithmetic tells you how wide is wide enough when the variable is a ministry’s decision, not a business cycle.
An editorial application of Benjamin Graham's published framework — not their actual view, affiliation, or advice.
Where this lens comes from
Benjamin Graham's framework is set out at the lens page, drawn from Security Analysis, The Intelligent Investor. This page applies it to ASML and nothing else — the company's full record is in the dossier.