ASML · one lens
Benjamin Graham on ASML
ASML’s October results improve the earnings record, but they do not establish a Graham-style margin of safety at the quoted price.
Graham separates ASML’s quoted price from its earning power in Security Analysis. He requires a margin of safety between price and a value supported by assets, earnings, dividends, and definite prospects. Graham also sets defensive-stock price ceilings at 25 times average earnings over seven years and 20 times earnings over the trailing twelve months. ASML’s October results strengthen the earnings record, but the supplied materials cannot test either ceiling.
CNBC’s third-quarter report puts ASML’s 2026 third-quarter net sales at €11.66 billion, against an €11.72 billion estimate, and net profit at €4.96 billion, against a €4.1 billion estimate. CNBC also reports that ASML raised the lower end of its 2026 net-sales forecast to €44 billion, from €43 billion, while leaving the €45 billion upper end unchanged. ASML has delivered profit above that quarter’s estimate; Graham’s multi-year test still asks what earnings the business can sustain.
ASML says, per Reuters’ account, that it cannot fully meet AI-driven tool demand in 2027 and 2028. Reuters also reports customer interest for 2029 and 2030 but gives no sales amount for that later interest. Graham’s distinction between definite prospects and hoped-for growth keeps those statements separate from earned profit. SCMP’s China account reports a third-quarter rebound in Chinese machine sales while ASML retains its earlier expectation for China’s share of full-year sales. Bloomberg’s supplier report describes EU-China negotiations over sanctions affecting a German ASML supplier, not an agreement that has removed the constraint.
The TEXXR coverage record logged 14 ASML articles in the completed third quarter of 2026, against its eight-quarter average of 9.7 articles per quarter. Those figures measure coverage, not machine orders. The market feed puts ASML’s October 15 close down 3.87%, to 1,657.44 from 1,724.08 at the previous close. The supplied record gives neither the seven-year earnings average nor the trailing per-share earnings needed to compare that quote with Graham’s ceilings. ASML’s results make the business easier to examine; the record does not establish a margin of safety.
An editorial application of Benjamin Graham's published framework — not their actual view, affiliation, or advice.
Where this lens comes from
Benjamin Graham's framework is set out at the lens page, drawn from The Intelligent Investor, Security Analysis. This page applies it to ASML and nothing else — the company's full record is in the dossier.