SpaceX’s November report meets a Cursor cutoff

SpaceX already spends ahead of its base

SpaceX enters its November 3 report with a cost base that does not fund itself. SpaceX filed FY2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, up 33% from $14.0 billion in FY2024. SpaceX filed FY2025 capex of $20.9 billion, up 87% from $11.2 billion in FY2024; the filed amount supersedes the rounded coverage figure in the prior dossier. SpaceX pushed free cash flow to negative $14.1 billion in FY2025, compared with negative $5.4 billion in FY2024. SpaceX also reported FY2025 EBITDA of $4.4 billion, down 22% from $5.6 billion in FY2024.

SpaceX’s filed record therefore marks a capital sink before the current AI build enters a full year. SpaceX then said Q2 capex was $18.4 billion, against Q2 2025’s $2.8 billion. SpaceX assigned $15.8 billion of Q2 capex to AI, against $2.56 billion of Q2 AI revenue. Those two reported figures produce a derived 6.2× ratio of AI capex to AI revenue. SpaceX said Q3 and Q4 capex would remain similar to Q2.

OpenAI has turned Cursor into a dated dependency

SpaceX closed its $60 billion Cursor purchase in August, against $18.7 billion of FY2025 company revenue as filed. OpenAI has now told SpaceX that it intends to stop supplying models to Cursor on November 12 because OpenAI cannot confirm terms compliance.

OpenAI’s proposed cutoff lands nine calendar days after SpaceX’s November 3 report. That gap creates a clean inference-layer signal. SpaceX can disclose whether Cursor will replace OpenAI’s models, renegotiate access or accept reduced model choice. OpenAI’s notice establishes the deadline; it does not establish what Cursor will run afterward.

SpaceX is trying to remove other external constraints. SpaceX plans to deploy Nvidia Vera CPUs. SpaceX also says it is casting turbine components in-house, which the company says could shorten its existing turbine schedule by up to 18 months. The Information separately inferred a possible Bastrop foundry from job listings and other indicators; SpaceX has not confirmed that facility in the supplied record.

SpaceX’s coverage shock arrived before operating proof

In TEXXR’s normalized rollup, coverage of SpaceX ran at 150 articles in 2026Q2, 7.6× the trailing eight-quarter average of 20. The baseline rounds to 20; the ratio uses the rollup’s unrounded inputs. Raw corpus snapshots in the prior dossier carry different totals, so this note keeps the normalized series separate.

SpaceX attracted that attention during the IPO and xAI consolidation. The filed record now has to convert attention into segment evidence. SpaceX’s sales growth alone cannot answer whether AI spending narrows toward AI revenue or keeps drawing cash from connectivity and launch.

SpaceX has three observable tests

• SpaceX can report AI capex and AI revenue on November 3. The baseline is Q2’s derived 6.2× spend-to-revenue ratio.
• SpaceX and OpenAI can confirm, delay or cancel the November 12 Cursor cutoff. Cursor can disclose which models replace any lost access.
• SpaceX can separate announced turbine casting from the unconfirmed Bastrop facility. Production output and commissioning dates would turn the power plan from hiring evidence into operating evidence.

Sources

The record:

• SpaceX says Q2 capex rose to $18.4B from $2.8B in Q2 2025, including $15.8B for its AI segment, $1.2B for space, and $1.4B for connectivity; SPCX drops 10%+ — Wall Street Journal, Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT — original · TEXXR record
• SpaceX reports Q2 revenue from its AI segment up 247% YoY to $2.56B, above $2.18B est., $100B of cash and marketable securities, and a $47.5B order backlog — Axios, Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT — original · TEXXR record
• SpaceX reports Q2 revenue up 92% YoY to $7.8B, vs. $6.81B est., AI operating loss of $1.26B, vs. $2.39B est., and says Q3 and Q4 capex will remain similar to Q2 — Bloomberg, Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT — original · TEXXR record
• SpaceX closes its $60B acquisition of Cursor, two months after SpaceX formally announced it had agreed to acquire the startup — Bloomberg, Sun, 16 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT — original · TEXXR record
• OpenAI says it plans to stop providing its models to Cursor from November 12, as “we cannot be confident that SpaceX will use our technology within our ToS” — OpenAI, 2026-08-30 — original · TEXXR record
• Nvidia says its inference accelerator Groq 3 LPX has entered full production, with Nebius signing on as the first customer, and SpaceX will deploy Vera CPUs — SiliconANGLE, 2026-08-25 — original · TEXXR record
• Elon Musk says SpaceX is “doing in-house casting” for blades and vanes, which can accelerate natural gas turbines “coming online by up to 18 months” — The Information, 2026-08-30 — original · TEXXR record
• Job listings and other indicators: SpaceX is working on a Bastrop, TX foundry to build blades for large gas turbines, which could ease its AI power crunch — The Information, 2026-08-29 — original · TEXXR record