Analysis
ASML before the 2026-10-14 report: orders, buyers and China
July’s higher sales forecast meets a harder test: when customer commitments turn into shipments, and where those machines go.
ASML’s July forecast raised the bar for the next report
DeadRisk’s market-data calendar, captured on 2026-08-26, schedules ASML’s next report for 2026-10-14. That date can move. The July report gives the desk a firmer baseline: ASML reported second-quarter net sales of €9.3 billion, against an €8.8 billion estimate. ASML then raised its 2026 sales forecast to €43 billion–€45 billion from €36 billion–€40 billion. ASML’s October report must show whether management retains the July range and what its orders say about the path to it.
The street can see the raised forecast. The useful distinction is between customers ordering tools, ASML shipping them and ASML collecting cash. The July sales result measures revenue recognized in that quarter. It does not, by itself, settle when later customer commitments become sales.
Chipmakers have committed to High NA, but on later clocks
Samsung and TSMC committed to using ASML’s High NA EUV machines by 2028 and 2030, respectively, according to Bloomberg’s September report. Bloomberg also reported that Samsung, TSMC, Intel and ASML agreed to move from 6-inch to 12-inch photomasks. Those are customer and equipment commitments. Bloomberg’s report does not establish how much High NA revenue ASML will recognize in its next report. The buyers still control their production schedules.
Those buyers also have a say on price. The Information reported in July that ASML had discussed higher EUV prices with TSMC and planned to charge 10% more for DUV systems than before. The same report said TSMC was resisting. A proposed increase is not a realized selling price. ASML’s EUV position gives it a place in the semiconductor chokepoint; TSMC’s response shows why the desk should check orders, shipments and pricing separately rather than collapse them into an AI-capex headline.
China’s installed DUV fleet complicates the export story
ASML’s China exposure has two clocks: future sales under export rules and machines buyers already acquired. Bloomberg reported that China represented 49% of ASML’s combined sales in the first half of 2024. In January 2026, ASML said it expected China to represent about 20% of total 2026 sales. Those figures have different periods and denominators: one is a reported half-year share; the other is a full-year forecast. By the first quarter of 2026, South Korea accounted for 45% of net system sales, against 22% in the preceding quarter.
A newer report addresses the older fleet, not a fresh quarter of orders. The South China Morning Post cited a Center for Technology & Statecraft report that Chinese fabs had acquired about 343 DUV immersion tools by early 2026, including about 270 from ASML. The report says those tools can be adapted for advanced chips; it does not establish that China has replaced ASML’s EUV tools. The China AI stack can therefore draw on equipment acquired before a new restriction while ASML reports a different mix of current buyers. October sales alone cannot measure what that installed fleet can produce.
TEXXR logged more ASML articles, not more orders
TEXXR’s ASML coverage record logged 14 articles in 2026Q3, against its stated average of 10 per quarter across the preceding eight quarters, 2024Q3–2026Q2. The 1.4× comparison is derived from those two counts. The counting unit is an ASML article in TEXXR’s coverage record, assigned to its publication quarter—not an ASML mention in the wider corpus. The supplied record does not show the eight quarterly counts, so its average cannot be independently reproduced here. None of these counts measures orders, fabs or export violations.
The reported events are more useful than the article total. Bloomberg described later High NA commitments, while Tom’s Hardware reported that Europe accounted for 0% of ASML revenue in the first and second quarters of 2026, against 1% in full-year 2025 and 5% in full-year 2024. Tom’s Hardware also reported that ASML was asking EU authorities to help create demand for EU-made chips. The quarterly and annual shares are not like-for-like periods, but they identify the limit of ASML’s home-market sales in that report.
The report can test conversion, mix and price
If ASML reports on the scheduled date, the desk should watch observable signals, not infer them from coverage volume:
- Orders and guidance: Does ASML retain July’s €43 billion–€45 billion 2026 sales range, and does it distinguish current tool demand from the 2028 and 2030 High NA commitments?
- Buyer mix: Does ASML report a China share consistent with its roughly 20% full-year 2026 expectation, and how does South Korea compare with its 45% first-quarter net-system-sales share? The measures need their own denominators.
- Realized pricing: Does ASML report evidence that DUV prices changed, rather than repeat The Information’s reported proposal to raise them 10% and TSMC’s resistance?
ASML can answer those questions with orders, sales mix and prices. The coverage record cannot answer them on its behalf.
Sources
The record:
- ASML reports Q2 net sales of €9.3B, above €8.8B est., a €2.9B net profit, above €2.6B est., and raises its 2026 net sales forecast from €36B-€40B to €43B-€45B — CNBC, Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT — original · TEXXR record
- China has been ASML's biggest market for four quarters in a row; China sales rose 21% YoY to €2.3B in Q2 2024 and accounted for 49% of ASML's Q1 and Q2 sales — Bloomberg, Thu, 18 Jul 2024 00:00:00 GMT — original · TEXXR record
- ASML reports Q4 net sales of €9.7B, vs. €9.6B est., and €2.84B net profit, vs. €3.01B est., and says it expects China to account for 20% of its total 2026 sales — CNBC, Wed, 28 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT — original · TEXXR record
- ASML says South Korea surpassed China as its largest market in Q1 2026, with shipments hitting 45% of net system sales, or €2.84B, up from 22% in Q4 2025 — Bloomberg, Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT — original · TEXXR record
- Center for Technology & Statecraft: Chinese fabs had acquired ~343 DUVi tools by early 2026, with ~270 from ASML; DUVi can be adapted to make 7nm chips and HBM — South China Morning Post, 2026-10-04 — original · TEXXR record
- ASML's European revenue share dropped to 0% in Q1 and Q2 2026, down from 1% in 2025 and 5% in 2024; ASML is urging EU authorities to create demand for EU chips — Tom's Hardware, 2026-09-24 — original · TEXXR record