The argument
The tape · quarterly coverage amplitude · live quarter blinking
G42 supplied 87% of Cerebras’ $136.4 million in first-half-2024 revenue. G42 also committed $335 million to buy shares. The supplied reports do not show that the purchase closed.
The share implies $118.7 million from G42, derived. Cerebras reported a $66.6 million net loss for the same half. The proposed purchase would have given G42 a stake above 5%. Reuters reported a US national-security review of it in March 2025; Cerebras said it resolved “all open issues.”
Cerebras Systems (CBRS, Nasdaq) builds wafer-scale chips for training and running AI models: one large piece of silicon per chip, rather than smaller dies cut from a wafer and wired together. Cerebras priced its IPO at $185 a share on May 13, 2026, above its raised $150–$160 range. The base deal of 30 million shares raised $5.55 billion, derived from that price and share count. Corrected October 27: the second-quarter 10-Q shows the underwriters took 4.5 million more, so 34.5 million shares sold for about $6.2 billion net. By proceeds, it was the largest US tech listing of 2026 and the largest since Uber’s in 2019. Shares opened at $350 and closed their first day at $311.07, up 68% from the IPO price.
TEXXR first tagged Cerebras on September 1, 2017. A Forbes profile put its valuation at $860 million before it had shipped a product. A $250 million Series F in November 2021 put Cerebras at $4 billion, versus the 2017 valuation, and brought its cumulative funding to $720 million.
Sources floated an IPO in January 2024. TEXXR still marks that graph edge as rumored, unresolved for over 900 days by August 2026, although Cerebras listed in May. Cerebras filed confidentially in June 2024 and publicly that September. It withdrew that public filing in October 2025 after a $1.1 billion private raise valued it at $8.1 billion, versus $4 billion at the 2021 raise. A $1 billion Series H led by Tiger Global, joined by AMD, valued it at $23 billion in February 2026. Cerebras filed publicly again in April. That second public filing led to the May listing; it was not withdrawn.
Cerebras reported its second quarter on August 12. GAAP revenue was $180.1 million, up 74% from a year earlier and down 6.9% from Q1’s $193.4 million, derived. Reuters noted a $194.2 million analyst estimate. The earnings release put core revenue, the company’s adjusted measure, at $209.9 million against the $194.0 million it guided in June. GAAP gross margin fell to 14.2% from 44.6% in Q1, derived from the 10-Q. Core gross margin was 40.6%, above the 36–38% guide and below Q1’s 47%. Net loss was $450.5 million against $14.0 million in Q1; the 10-Q shows $386.6 million of stock pay in the half and says IPO vesting raised it.
TEXXR counts articles tagged Cerebras in its corpus by calendar quarter. It found one to four per quarter from 2023 through most of 2025, then 18 in Q1 2026 and 23 in Q2. Completed Q3 brought eight, near the eight-quarter average of 7.7. These count coverage, not deployments.
Added October 27: all eight Q3 articles ran by August 19. By text search, TEXXR then logged none naming Cerebras for 68 days, to October 26, against eight in the 50 days before. The close fell 49.8% over those 68 days, from $215.69 to $108.37. Our record is silent on why; the reasons below come from filings and outside reporting.
TEXXR changed how it extracts graph edges in 2026Q1. Cerebras’s rose from five to 35; 14 carry a label, six of them a competitor label TEXXR had barely used before, for Cerebras or Nvidia. That mix cannot be set against earlier quarters.
The spectrogram
Signal decomposition · what the record is made of, by quarter · brightness = share of edges · drift = how far the story moved in meaning
In 2024Q1 the record was 33% launch; by 2026Q1 it is 57% financial. A price chart shows what a name did; the spectrogram shows what its story is made of.
The brains
Wafer-scale silicon reads as a genuine cornered resource — CUDA's switching costs are the wall it still has to clear.
Cerebras has delivered strong Q1 growth, but its post-IPO price reversal and abrupt coverage surge show Shiller's feedback loop shifting from recruitment to reassessment.
Two months of public trading and one earnings print is not the thorough analysis Graham's definition of investment requires.
The machine
The October 1 version of this page found G42 the only customer tied to equity. The 10-Q now shows three. G42 took warrants for 1.86 million shares in December 2025 and 1.66 million in April, at $0.01 a share, and exercised both. OpenAI holds a warrant for up to 33.4 million shares at $0.00001 each; 10.0 million had vested by June 30, derived, and none was exercised. AWS holds one for up to 2.7 million shares at $100, most of which vest as Amazon pays Cerebras. The October 26 close of $108.37 is 8.4% above that strike. Cerebras books each warrant as a revenue cut: $44.3 million in Q2.
OpenAI is also a lender. It committed to buy 750 megawatts of capacity and lent Cerebras about $1.0 billion in January; Cerebras repays part in service credits, not cash. The filing names no customers. Customer A, tied to Customer D, was 34% of Q2 revenue, against 70% a year earlier; Customer B was 32% and Customer C 10%. OpenAI’s $56.8 million is 31.5% of Q2 revenue, derived; the 10-Q does not say whether it is Customer B. Two customers owed 76% of receivables on June 30.
Ten of the 18 AI-heavy funds in our 13F panel show a Cerebras line in their June 30 holdings, filed August 14 or 17. None showed one in March; the stock first traded May 14. The ten lines total $4.91 billion at the $221.00 June 30 close, derived from the filed share counts. Altimeter’s $1.60 billion was 16.2% of its book. A first line in June reflects the listing, not a purchase; the filings do not say when any fund bought. Atreides also lists a call on 700,000 shares, left out of the total.
AWS said in March 2026 it would deploy Cerebras’ Wafer-Scale Engine for inference alongside its Trainium chips. TEXXR extracted 17 near-identical claims from coverage of that one announcement, not 17 deployments. Mistral partnered with Cerebras in February 2025.
AMD invested in Cerebras, and The Information reported in July that the two are linking AMD racks to Cerebras wafers; no filing names AMD a customer. On October 27 Oracle said it will add Cerebras hardware to its cloud. The coverage we read gives no size or start date.
The OpenAI tie came under dispute in late September. SemiAnalysis said on X that OpenAI’s Ultrafast tier runs on Nvidia GPUs, not Cerebras; it later wrote that Cerebras is sold out and its chips at OpenAI serve Ultrafast to other customers. On October 2 Sam Altman called Cerebras a “close partner,” Yahoo Finance reported. That report cites no statement from Cerebras. TEXXR’s graph still holds the August edge saying Cerebras powers Ultrafast, and had logged no Cerebras edge after August 14 as of October 27. In the broader AI capex story, the filing now discloses the revenue mix but still not utilization.
The money
Currency: USD. Revenue/net income/capex/FCF cross-checked against filed XBRL.
Positioning: how much of CBRS is sold short, on the record brokers file twice a month. It lags by design — read it as where the crowd stood, not where it stands.
10 of the 18 AI-heavy funds in our 13F panel reported a long position in Cerebras Systems at 30 Jun 2026, against 0 of 18 at 31 Mar 2026. By share count: 10 listed. A line in a company that listed during the quarter is a listing, not a new position.
| Fund | Value, 30 Jun 2026 | Shares | Since 31 Mar 2026 | Options (underlying) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altimeter Capital Management, LP | $1.60bn | 7.23m | listed in the quarter | |
| Coatue Management LLC | $1.55bn | 7.01m | listed in the quarter | |
| Atreides Management, LP | $687m | 3.11m | listed in the quarter | calls on $155m |
| Tiger Global Management LLC | $663m | 3.00m | listed in the quarter | |
| Value Aligned Research Advisors, LLC filed 17 Aug 2026 | $242m | 1.09m | listed in the quarter | |
| Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC | $88m | 400,000 | listed in the quarter | |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $33m | 150,000 | listed in the quarter | |
| Greenoaks LLC | $33m | 150,000 | listed in the quarter | |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $11m | 50,696 | listed in the quarter | |
| Situational Awareness LP | $2.2m | 10,000 | listed in the quarter |
From each fund's Form 13F-HR. A 13F shows holdings at quarter-end, filed up to 45 days later (17 of the 18 books on 14 Aug 2026, the rest as dated), not trades: a change compares share counts on two dates and says nothing about when or at what price shares moved. Values are as filed at quarter-end. Option rows give the value of the underlying shares, not the premium paid. Ordinary short positions do not appear in a 13F. The panel is a fixed list of funds, not a ranking; the 13Fs of NVIDIA and Alphabet are left out as corporate stakes.
The record
Changes on October 27: the margin and ownership questions are answered (Narrative Arc, Graph); the earnings date moved from November 10 to November 12; the price item is rewritten.
- The unlock, November 9. The prospectus staged releases of up to 19.4 million shares each on September 30, October 14 and October 28. All remaining shares go free at the earlier of two trading days after the Q3 report or 180 days after the May 13 prospectus. Cerebras set the report for November 12, after the close, so the 180-day date governs: November 9, derived. The 10-Q estimates up to 171.1 million shares freed in the period, of 237.6 million outstanding on August 5, derived. EDGAR lists no Form 144 after September 29 and no Form 4 after October 7.
- Q3 report, November 12. Guidance is core revenue of $214–216 million and core gross margin of 38–40%, after $209.9 million and 40.6% in Q2; the full-year margin guide rose to 41–43%. Compare GAAP margin too: 14.2% in Q2.
- Customer mix and warrants. Look in the next 10-Q for Customer A, B and C shares, OpenAI warrant tranches vested beyond 10.0 million, and whether AWS’s lease began; it had not by June 30.
- Cash conversion. In the half, operating cash flow was negative $47.5 million and equipment purchases were $548.9 million; financing brought in $7.85 billion, mostly the IPO. Watch whether capex keeps outrunning cash from sales.
- Who serves Ultrafast. Neither OpenAI nor Cerebras has said which chips run the tier; the claim stays SemiAnalysis’s.
- Price against the listing. On September 30 the close was $177.65. On October 26 it was $108.37, the lowest close since the May 14 listing: 41.4% below the $185 offer and 65.2% below the first-day close, derived.
| Quarter | Articles | QoQ | Q-end price | QoQ | The record reads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Q4 | 2 | — | — | — | first quarter on record |
| 2025Q1 | 4 | +100% | — | — | attention rose |
| 2025Q3 | 2 | -50% | — | — | attention cooled |
| 2025Q4 | 4 | +100% | — | — | attention rose |
| 2026Q1 | 18 | +350% | — | — | attention rose |
| 2026Q2 | 23 | +28% | 221.00 USD | — | attention rose |
| 2026Q3 | 8 | -65% | 177.65 USD | -19.6% | attention and price fell together |
| 2026Q4 open | 6 | -25% | 115.16 USD | -35.2% | attention and price fell together (quarter in progress) |
The peers
Cerebras Systems lives or dies by the same constraint as these names — small equal-weighted groups, one constraint each. Not investment products: see all categories.
Sources
Edges (TEXXR knowledge graph): 96495, 303933, 14377, 66583, 67109, 95772, 399825, 233897, 283608, 92782, 390992, 404217, 404219, 52033, 408771, 408847, 411457, 411561