Company dossier

Nvidia

TEXXR's own coverage volume for Nvidia peaked a full quarter before the stock's all-time high did, then cooled for two quarters running.

NVDA NASDAQ Chips
Coverage intelligence, not investment advice — the gauge is narrative balance (measured), never a call.
The Trade
short-narrativelong-narrative
1/3 constructive

The long story Which of the seven Powers Nvidia actually holds, tested against its own rising competitor-edge share.

The short story Mr. Market repriced Nvidia by a trillion dollars in two months; the multiple left standing still tests Graham's own ceiling.

The AI Capex Supercycle ▲ competitor +23pts
Coverage heat 1.4× on baseline · mark = 1×
30-day tape -2.5% EOD delayed
Next earnings T−24d 2026-08-26
Short cover 2.5d 2026-07-15
This week 10 stories in 7d

The argument

The tape · quarterly coverage amplitude · live quarter blinking

Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) designs graphics processors. That line used to describe the whole company. It now describes a footnote: the same silicon that once rendered video games trains and runs the large models behind the current AI buildout, and Nvidia sells the chips, the networking, and a growing software layer that ties a data center together.

TEXXR’s archive holds 1,008 Nvidia-tagged articles running back to the final quarter of 2014 — one of the deepest single-entity records in the corpus. The volume itself is worth reading before the words are. Coverage ran from single digits to the high teens per quarter through most of the 2010s, broke 30 for the first time in 2022, broke 50 for the first time in the third quarter of 2023, broke 100 in the third quarter of 2025, and peaked at 193 articles in the first quarter of 2026 — 2.3 times the trailing eight-quarter average of 85 articles a quarter heading into that peak. Nvidia’s stock did not reach its own all-time high until May 2026, a month into the following quarter: the coverage record ran ahead of the price record, then eased off. TEXXR logged 162 Nvidia articles in the second quarter of 2026 and 143 so far in the third, which is still open.

193
articles, 2026Q1
2.3× the trailing 8-quarter average

This is DeadRisk’s mag7 tier: the deepest corpus we hold on any single name, and explicitly not a stock-picking exercise. Robert Shiller’s case, laid out in Irrational Exuberance, was that narratives move markets on their own terms, apart from fundamentals. Nvidia’s coverage record is a twelve-year test of that case. This page tracks the record, not the trade.

Nvidia: coverage volume and how the record frames it
Nvidia: coverage volume and how the record frames it

The earliest coverage in TEXXR’s record is a niche chip company defending its turf: an ITC patent complaint from Samsung over GPU technology in the last quarter of 2014, GeForce card launches, the Shield Android TV set-top box announced in 2015, a 2018 Spectre disclosure alongside the rest of the chip industry. Through 2019 the record shows a graphics-card and workstation vendor with an autonomous-driving side bet — the Drive PX self-driving platform, announced in 2015 — layered on top.

Two crypto cycles interrupt that story before the AI one starts. SoftBank took a $4 billion stake in Nvidia in 2017, on the strength of gaming and early data-center demand. By 2018 Nvidia was disclosing $289 million in chip sales specifically to cryptocurrency miners, and a mining-driven GPU shortage was national tech-news copy. The pattern repeated in 2021 — Nvidia shipped mining-limited GeForce cards to keep gamers supplied — and broke in 2022: crypto demand collapsed, Nvidia disclosed excess RTX 3000-series inventory, longtime board partner EVGA quit the graphics-card business entirely citing conflicts with Nvidia, and the SEC fined Nvidia $5.5 million for failing to adequately disclose how much of its earlier gaming revenue had actually come from miners.

The Arm acquisition brackets the same stretch and tells a similar story of ambition meeting friction: announced at more than $40 billion in September 2020, the same year Nvidia’s A100 chip opened its data-center era and the company passed Intel as the most valuable US chipmaker, then abandoned in February 2022 after regulators refused to clear it and SoftBank took Arm public instead.

What follows is the AI-datacenter turn most readers already know in outline, but the coverage record gives it a shape: a $1 trillion market cap in May 2023, the week Nvidia raised its revenue forecast on AI demand; $2 trillion nine months later; $3 trillion four months after that, passing Apple, then Microsoft two weeks after that to take the title of world’s most valuable public company. Nvidia reached $4 trillion in July 2025 and $5 trillion that October. An export-control subplot runs through those numbers and never fully resolves: the H800, a cut-down H100 built for China in 2023; the H20 licensing back-and-forth of 2025; and a China-only RTX 6000D that Reuters reported met “lukewarm demand” that September. By May 2026 the record had Nvidia positioned as an AI investor in its own right, with more than $40 billion in equity commitments across the industry — before a Bloomberg-reported $1 trillion pullback in July 2026 put the stock back at an 18-times forward-earnings multiple, its lowest since 2019.

The signature: Nvidia coverage volume against price
The signature: Nvidia coverage volume against price

The spectrogram

launch financial partnership acquisition regulatory legal controversy personnel drift 24Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1

Signal decomposition · what the record is made of, by quarter · brightness = share of edges · drift = how far the story moved in meaning

In 2024Q1 the record was 49% launch; by 2026Q1 it is 30% financial. A price chart shows what a name did; the spectrogram shows what its story is made of.

Who tells it · top-3 hold 35%
Bloomberg 334
Reuters 205
Financial Times 163
CNBC 159
The Verge 142
Wall Street Journal 136

The brains

Each take is an editorial application of a thinker's published framework — not their actual view, affiliation, or advice. methodology ↗
The powers meter — Helmer's 7 Powers · 2/7 held · dark = not argued in the record
Scale Economiesheld chip design and CUDA are fixed costs spread over the industry's largest unit volume; a smaller rival can't close the cost gap without first matching volume it doesn't have
Switching Costsheld CUDA's retraining/re-tooling cost; customers built Triton to route around it rather than simply switch off it
Cornered Resourcecontested TSMC leading-edge capacity functions like one but is shared, not exclusive — and Nvidia's own Intel 18A test, walked away without shipping, cuts against it

7 Powers · the Helmer lens

An editorial application of Hamilton Helmer's published framework — not their actual view, affiliation, or advice.

The machine

TEXXR’s most recent batch of 500 tracked Nvidia edges runs launch (26.8%), financial (24.8%), and partnership (24.4%) — three-quarters of everything the graph records about the company, with regulatory (6.2%), controversy (4.6%), and competitor (4.2%) edges making up a thin remainder. That is the record of a company still mostly building rather than mostly defending.

But the mix is moving. Nvidia’s edge-arc between the first quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2026 shows launch-predicate edges falling from 49% to 29% of the total, while competitor-predicate edges rose from zero to 23% over the same stretch. AMD, Qualcomm, and MediaTek all now show up contesting Nvidia’s data-center CPU position, and Nvidia’s own edges name Intel’s foundry, not just its chips, as a competitive front: Nvidia tested Intel’s 18A process and quietly walked away from it in mid-2026, the same season it bought $5 billion of Intel stock — 214.7 million shares at $23.28 — as part of the two companies’ x86 partnership.

The clearest illustration of where Nvidia’s own balance sheet now runs is CoreWeave. Nvidia owns a 5.96% stake as of March 2025, anchored CoreWeave’s IPO that month with a roughly $250 million order, and added another $2 billion in January 2026 to help CoreWeave deploy Nvidia’s new Vera CPUs and add gigawatts of AI computing capacity. The same investor role shows up at industry scale: more than $40 billion in equity commitments by May 2026, with $30 billion of that in OpenAI alone.

Nvidia’s other recent edges read like a map of the AI-capex supply chain itself: Cadence named Nvidia, TSMC, and Schneider Electric as early users of its AuraStack design tool; Nokia built an AI radio-access-network platform with Nvidia; and Nvidia’s own regulatory edges show it cutting authorized AI-chip customers in Singapore, Malaysia, and Japan by more than half, to close off routes for chips to reach China.

One edge pair is worth reading side by side. In the same week of December 2025, Nvidia’s $20 billion Groq licensing deal appears in the record both as a confirmed acquisition and — after a leaked internal email from Jensen Huang — as a denied one. Nvidia ended up with Groq’s CEO, Jonathan Ross, and roughly 90% of Groq’s staff, without buying the company outright. The graph logged the contradiction honestly; the contradiction is the story.

Key counterparties — top by shared coverage
Microsoft 209China 208AMD 167Intel 162Jensen Huang 155AI 151Google 139GPU 124Apple 119Chinese 104
Key products
Drive PXG-Sync30805090CoreWeave - 3Chowdhry /Pulse 2.0
CuspAI partnership Nvidia
CuspAI has a partnership with Nvidia.
confirmed #409489
Nvidia partnership Open Secure AI Alliance, CrowdStrike, Hugging Face, Dell
Nvidia forms the Open Secure AI Alliance with CrowdStrike, Hugging Face, and Dell to develop AI safety and cybersecurity tools.
confirmed #409177
Nvidia financial Intel
Nvidia purchased 214.7 million Intel shares at $23.28 each, totaling about $5 billion, according to an SEC filing executing a transaction announced in September.
confirmed #90393
Nvidia financial H200 chips
Sources indicate Nvidia currently holds 700,000 H200 chips (allocations/inventory) for 2026.
rumored #90451
GPU startups financial Nvidia
GPU startups are racing to raise funding to develop AI chips and vie for market leadership against Nvidia.
confirmed #90190
Apple financial Microsoft, Nvidia
Apple is one of three public companies (alongside Microsoft and Nvidia) to reach a $4 trillion market valuation.
confirmed #90154
Nvidia launch Intel 18A process
Nvidia reportedly stopped moving forward after testing Intel's 18A process and did not proceed with production.
failed #90453
Nvidia personnel Jonathan Ross
The Groq deal secures Jonathan Ross (Groq CEO and creator of the TPU) for Nvidia as key talent.
confirmed #90497
Groq personnel Nvidia, Jonathan Ross
A Groq deal secures key talent for Nvidia, including CEO Jonathan Ross (creator of the TPU).
confirmed #90499
Groq personnel Nvidia
Several other Groq senior executives will join Nvidia as part of the agreement.
confirmed #90339
Nvidia personnel companies that may try to make their own chips
The deal keeps Groq's key talent from being hired by companies that may try to develop their own chips, reducing potential competition.
confirmed #90498
Nvidia launch TSMC, H200 chips
Sources say Nvidia has approached TSMC requesting a ramp-up in production of H200 AI chips.
rumored #90449

The money

Nvidia fundamentals: revenue, free cash flow, EBITDA, capex
Nvidia fundamentals: revenue, free cash flow, EBITDA, capex
Revenue · FY2026
$215.9B
EOD estimate
Free cash flow · FY2026
$96.7B
EOD estimate
EBITDA · FY2026
$144.6B
EOD estimate
Capex · FY2026
$6.0B
EOD estimate
Net income · FY2026
$120.1B
EOD estimate

Currency: USD. Revenue/net income/capex/FCF cross-checked against filed XBRL.

Nvidia price, two years (EOD, delayed)
Nvidia price, two years (EOD, delayed)

Positioning: how much of NVDA is sold short, on the record brokers file twice a month. It lags by design — read it as where the crowd stood, not where it stands.

Shares short
324.1M +14.4%
FINRA via Massive, settled 2026-07-15 · 3-month change
Days to cover
2.5
at 131.2M average daily volume
Against its own record
at the high
most shorted in 85 readings on file

Order flow is signed before it becomes revenue — the earliest of the three views. From the capital-flow ledger.

Deals involving Nvidia, most recent first.
AnnouncedFromToDealValueIn guidance
SpaceX Foxconn (Hon Hai) supply next-generation AI servers on Nvidia GB300 unverified $52.0B outside guidance
Nvidia CoreWeave investment equity investment to deploy Vera CPUs and add capacity $2.0B not stated
Nvidia Intel investment equity stake alongside an x86 partnership $5.0B not stated

The record

Signals in the coverage record worth tracking, not trade ideas:

  • Quarterly article volume. Does it re-accelerate past the 193-article 2026Q1 peak, or keep reverting toward the 2025 run rate of 85 to 128 a quarter? Two quarters of decline — 162, then 143 — are already logged.
  • The competitor-edge share. It went from zero to 23% of Nvidia’s edges between 2024Q1 and 2026Q1. Does it keep climbing as AMD, Qualcomm, and MediaTek edges accumulate, or has the rivalry framing already peaked with the CPU story?
  • The Singapore/Malaysia/Japan customer cuts. Still logged as rumored. A status flip to confirmed, or a new regulatory or legal edge attached to it, is the thing to watch for.
  • The Groq relationship’s status. A confirmed partnership edge and a denied acquisition edge sit side by side. Whether that resolves cleanly, or produces a new controversy edge, says something about how much of Nvidia’s talent strategy the company will call by its name.
  • Second-order financial edges of the CoreWeave kind — equity stakes in the companies buying Nvidia’s chips. More of them, or fewer, is the clearest register the graph offers of how far Nvidia’s balance sheet is stretching into the AI-capex chain it supplies.
Nvidia coverage volume and quarter-end price, by quarter.
Quarter Articles QoQ Q-end price QoQ The record reads
2024Q4 66 134.09 USD first quarter on record
2025Q1 84 +27% 108.23 USD -19.3% attention rose as price fell
2025Q2 89 +6% 157.78 USD +45.8% price rose, attention steady
2025Q3 118 +33% 186.34 USD +18.1% attention and price rose together
2025Q4 128 +8% 186.27 USD +0.0% both steady
2026Q1 193 +51% 174.20 USD -6.5% attention rose as price fell
2026Q2 162 -16% 200.09 USD +14.9% attention cooled as price rose
2026Q3 open 160 -1% 195.04 USD -2.5% both steady (quarter in progress)
SRC Coverage 8 records
  1. Wall Street Journal An in-depth account of the past two days inside Situational Awareness, as Aschenbrenner assured investors he would focus on changes to his portfolio management rec #1174122
  2. Bloomberg Sources: Moonshot has a computing power agreement with Alibaba for the use of ~20K Nvidia chips; some say the deal is for H200 chips, which Alibaba denies rec #1174109
  3. Financial Times Q&A with CuspAI's Max Welling on its AI Materials Foundry, partnerships with Nvidia and others, Geoff Hinton and Yann LeCun joining its advisory board, and more rec #1173980
  4. The Information Sources: Moonshot is seeking access to more Nvidia Blackwell chips to prepare for Kimi K4's development, after training K3 on Nvidia chips, including Blackwell rec #1173920
  5. Reuters Nvidia forms the Open Secure AI Alliance, a coalition including CrowdStrike, Hugging Face, and Dell to develop and share tools for AI safety and cybersecurity rec #1173807
  6. Wall Street Journal Nvidia says it made a “substantial” investment in Safe Superintelligence, which will get access to Nvidia GPUs to up computing power by an “order of magnitude” rec #1173809
  7. Financial Times Sources: Nvidia signs leases worth up to $50B for Hut 8's planned 1GW data center in Texas, hosting hundreds of thousands of chips; Hut 8 didn't name its client rec #1173832
  8. The Information Sources: Moonshot is seeking access to more Nvidia Blackwell chips to prepare for Kimi K4's development, after training K3 on Nvidia chips, including Blackwell rec #1173843
VOX Voices · $NVDA 14 captured
  1. In 1993, Jensen Huang co-founded Nvidia. To incorporate and price the shares, a lawyer asked Huang for any money he had in his wallet. He gave $200 for 20% of Nvidia. Today, he has a 3.6% stake (worth ~$36B after Nvidia crossed $1T market cap). Lesson: Always keep cash on hand. […

  2. Call it irony or foreshadowing, Sun Microsystem's campaign was “We put the dot in dot com”. At its peak in 2000, the company was valued at $200 billion. By 2001, the stock price had dropped by 80% and Oracle bought Sun for $7B in 2010. A 96% drop from its peak valuation. [image]

  3. NVIDIA ($NVDA) is now trading at 37 times its revenue (P/S) and 202 times its earnings (P/E)! Now's the right time to remember what Scott McNealy, CEO of Sun Microsystems told Bloomberg just after the dot-com collapse 👇 [image]

  4. If a diner doesn't play a pivotal role in your startup, it's less likely that you're building a $1 trillion dollar company. [image]

  5. *points at Apple designing their own SoCs as a full in house semi business for the better part of a decade* https://twitter.com/...

  6. NVIDIA just crossed over $1 trillion market cap today. They were worth less than $10 billion a decade ago. Amazing. [image]

  7. As Nvidia joins the Trillion Dollar Club, @tculpan on the other boats rising in the tide https://www.bloomberg.com/...

  8. Huang's wealth surged by more than $6 billion to a record $34 billion. He co-founded the company in 1993 and still runs it as chief executive officer. https://www.bloomberg.com/...

their words, verbatim — inclusion is not endorsement method ↗

The peers

Nvidia lives or dies by the same constraint as these names — small equal-weighted groups, one constraint each. Not investment products: see all categories.

The silicon everyone else is buying — the compute constraint, 1.9 independent bets across 6 names

Sources

SRCSources36 records
  1. PC MagazineITC will investigate Samsung's GPU tech patent infringement claims against Nvidia and othersrec #824844
  2. EngadgetNvidia announces Shield, a $200 Android TV set-top box and game console with support for 4K video, available in Mayrec #826983
  3. Re/codeNvidia announces developer kit for self-driving car platform Drive PX, available in May for $10Krec #827425
  4. CNETNvidia's new graphics card pushes for better 4Krec #829717
  5. ReutersNvidia says GeForce, Tesla, Grid, NVS, and Quadro chipsets affected by Spectre, begins rolling out software patchesrec #925619
  6. BloombergSources: SoftBank has taken a $4B stake in Nvidia, representing an equity holding of 4.9%, which is just under the amount requiring a regulatory disclosurerec #919179
  7. BloombergNvidia says it earned $289M from sales of its chips to cryptocurrency miners in Q1 of 2018, but expects crypto revenue to decline by two-thirds in Q2rec #929449
  8. Ars TechnicaThe rise of cryptocurrency mining has created a global shortage of high-end graphics cards from Nvidia and AMD, driving up prices for retail gamers/buyersrec #1161207
  9. The VergeNvidia extends its crypto mining limits to newly manufactured GeForce RTX 3080, RTX 3070, and RTX 3060 Ti graphics cards, which will be labeled “Lite Hash Rate”rec #966511
  10. Ars TechnicaEVGA exits graphics cards, citing issues with Nvidia, after exclusively using GeForce GPUs, reportedly making up 80% of its revenue, since its founding in 1999rec #982939
  11. Ars TechnicaNvidia says it is dealing with excess inventory of RTX 3000-series GPUs ahead of its next-gen RTX 4000 series release, signaling that the GPU shortage is overrec #982208
  12. ReutersThe SEC says Nvidia will pay $5.5M to settle charges it failed to disclose that cryptomining was a “significant element” of its FY 2018 gaming revenue growthrec #978648
  13. Wall Street JournalSources: SoftBank is nearing a deal to sell Arm to Nvidia for more than $40B; SoftBank paid $32B for the UK chip designer in 2016rec #957809
  14. BloombergSources: Nvidia is planning to abandon its Arm acquisition, as regulators scrutinize the deal; source says SoftBank is preparing an IPO for Armrec #975265
  15. TechCrunchNvidia and SoftBank call off Nvidia's Arm acquisition, following regulatory scrutiny; Arm CEO Simon Segars resigns, replaced by Arm IP group president Rene Haasrec #975767
  16. ReutersNvidia surpasses Intel as the most valuable US chipmaker, with a market cap of $248B+ as its stock has surged 68% in 2020rec #955585
  17. CNBCNvidia opens at a $1T market cap, joining Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, after raising its Q2 revenue forecast due to AI demand; NVDA is up 180%+ YTDrec #1156835
  18. ReutersNvidia announces the H800 chip, a modified H100 chip, for export to China; Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, and other Chinese companies are already using the H800rec #838180
  19. ReutersSources: Nvidia's China-only RTX 6000D receives lukewarm demand, with some seeing it as expensive given its performance lags the RTX 5090rec #890249
  20. CNBCNvidia hit a $3T+ market cap on June 5, rising over 5% and passing Apple at $2.99T as the second most valuable public US company, behind Microsoft at $3.15Trec #866839
  21. CNBCNvidia surpasses Microsoft to become the world's most valuable public company, with a $3.34T market cap; NVDA is up over 9x since January 2023rec #867688
  22. ReutersNvidia crossed a $2T market cap intraday on February 23, after adding $277B to its market value on February 22, Wall Street's largest one-day gain on recordrec #1154822
  23. Financial TimesNvidia opens at a $5T market cap, becoming the first company to hit the milestone, climbing 5% in early trading; NVDA is up 50% in 2025 and 1,275% since 2022rec #891897
  24. CNBCNvidia hits a $4T market cap in intraday trading, the first company to do so, after passing $3T in June 2024, $2T in February 2024, and $1T in May 2023rec #887696
  25. CNBCNvidia embraces the AI investor role in 2026, already making $40B+ in equity commitments so far, including $30B in OpenAI, $3.2B in Corning, and $2.1B in IRENrec #1168666
  26. CNBCNvidia stock jumps 4.3% to close at a record for the first time since Oct., pushing Nvidia's market cap past $5T, as a rally in Intel pushed chipmakers higherrec #1167729
  27. BloombergNvidia lost ~$1T in market value in less than two months, dropping 16% from its May all-time-high, trading at 18x forward earnings, its lowest level since 2019rec #1172298
  28. ReutersSEC filing: Nvidia acquires Intel shares worth $5B, carrying out a transaction announced in September, buying 214.7M shares for $23.28 eachrec #1154217
  29. Tom's HardwareNvidia and Intel partner to develop multiple generations of x86 products; Nvidia will buy $5B of Intel's stock at $23.28 per share, a ~5% stake; INTC jumps 25%+rec #890313
  30. ReutersFiling: CoreWeave is aiming to raise up to $2.7B in its US IPO at a valuation between $27.4B and $32B, selling 49M shares for $47 to $55; Nvidia owns 5.96%rec #883697
  31. CNBCCoreWeave raised $1.5B in its IPO, selling ~37.5M shares at $40 each, down from a planned 49M shares at $47-$55; source: Nvidia anchored with a ~$250M orderrec #883983
  32. BloombergiNvidia invests $2B more in CoreWeave to speed up an effort to add 5GW+ of AI computing capacity by 2030 and deploy Nvidia's new Vera CPUs; CRWV closed up 5.7%rec #1162197
  33. BloombergNvidia agrees to a licensing deal with Groq; CEO Jonathan Ross and other top executives will join Nvidia; Groq says it will continue operating independentlyrec #894083
  34. CNBCDisruptive CEO Alex Davis says Nvidia has agreed to buy assets from Groq for $20B in cash; leaked email: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is not acquiring Groqrec #894044
  35. AxiosSources: ~90% of Groq employees will join Nvidia and be paid cash for all vested shares; most shareholders will get per-share payouts tied to the $20B valuationrec #1154240
  36. Nikkei AsiaCPUs are now at the center of the AI race as Nvidia, Qualcomm, MediaTek, Arm, Google, Amazon, Chinese players, and others take on Intel and AMD in data centersrec #1172226

Edges (TEXXR knowledge graph) - #90154 — financial: Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia each reach a $4 trillion market valuation. - #90393 — financial: Nvidia purchased 214.7 million Intel shares at $23.28 each, about $5 billion. - #90453 — launch/failed: Nvidia tested Intel’s 18A process and did not proceed to production. - #90497 — personnel: The Groq deal secures Jonathan Ross, Groq’s CEO, for Nvidia. - #90431 — acquisition/confirmed: Nvidia and Groq have a $20B non-exclusive licensing agreement. - #90207 — acquisition/denied: A leaked email from Jensen Huang states Nvidia is not acquiring Groq. - #90449 — launch/rumored: Nvidia has approached TSMC requesting a ramp-up in H200 chip production. - #407708 — partnership: Cadence’s AuraStack names Nvidia, TSMC, and Schneider Electric as early users. - #407593 — partnership: Nokia developed an AI radio-access-network platform with Nvidia. - #407443 — regulatory/rumored: Nvidia intensified due diligence on authorized AI chip customers to prevent diversion to China. - #406922 — competitor: Nvidia, Qualcomm, and MediaTek challenge Intel and AMD in the AI data-center CPU market. - #66142 — financial: Nvidia owns a 5.96% stake in CoreWeave. - #66982 — financial: Nvidia anchored CoreWeave’s IPO with an approximately $250 million order. - #94290 — financial: Nvidia invests an additional $2 billion in CoreWeave. - #407045 — financial: Nvidia loses about $1 trillion in market value in under two months, trading at 18x forward earnings, its lowest multiple since 2019.