Anthropic

Anthropic’s S-1 shows $19.2 billion of compute and infrastructure expense from 2023 through June 2026, against $21.3 billion of revenue over the same stretch. Revenue has already outrun the compute bill. The filing then names compute deals worth about $637 billion, derived by adding them up, plus another $145 billion or more it estimates outside its commitments table. Not all of it is firm: the SpaceXAI, Nscale and Lambda deals, about $206 billion together, are “up to” amounts or carry exit terms.

The company filed on October 26 to list Class A shares on Nasdaq as ANT. The share count and price range are blank. The Wall Street Journal’s sources put the listing in the week of November 16, raising about $100 billion.

The $19.2 billion is not what the current models cost. The filing also groups expenses by function, and that view shows where the compute goes. In the first half of 2026, cost of revenue, almost all of it compute that serves customers, was $2.38 billion, or 15% of revenue. Research and development, which carries the compute that trains the next model along with research staff, was $9.74 billion. Serving Claude is cheap; making the next Claude is not. That matches what the FT’s sources said in September: gross margins above 80% before partner revenue sharing and training costs.

The headline $80.7 billion net loss for the half is mostly not cash. The FT notes that $72.4 billion of it is the rising fair value of convertible notes and similar instruments as the valuation climbed. The operating line turned in the second quarter: $974 million of operating income on $11.56 billion of revenue.

TEXXR first tagged Anthropic on May 29, 2021. Until the filing, the record carried its revenue as a string of leaked run rates. Bloomberg’s August list runs from $4 billion in July 2025 to $9 billion at the end of 2025, $19 billion in March 2026, $47 billion in May and $65 billion at the end of July. In January, The Information reported a raised 2026 revenue forecast of $18 billion. The first nine months came in near $33 billion, derived from the filed quarters plus the third-quarter figure below.

The filed quarters replace the leaks with numbers that can be checked, and the third quarter is the first that grew by fewer dollars than the one before. The S-1 leaves third-quarter revenue blank in one place but states elsewhere that it was 86 times the $197 million of the fourth quarter of 2024: about $16.9 billion, derived. The FT’s sources gave $16.8 billion. On either figure that is growth of 45% to 47% over the second quarter, against 144% the quarter before. In dollars, the second quarter added $6.8 billion over the first; the third added $5.3 billion to $5.4 billion. In every earlier quarter since the start of 2025, the dollar increase had grown. A day after the FT report, Reuters’ sources said some investors had discussed a $1.5 trillion valuation instead of $2 trillion.

Two accounting facts sit under the totals. Anthropic books sales through cloud marketplaces at the gross price and expenses the partners’ cut, a difference from OpenAI that Bloomberg laid out in October. Those sales were 48% of first-half revenue. And the filing estimates that 5% to 7% of revenue for the nine months came from customers breaking its usage terms, which The Information’s sources tied to distillation. Enforcement stepped up in August and September.

The biggest suppliers in the S-1 are also lenders or shareholders. The largest line is Broadcom: five-year leases of TPU-based hardware with rent of about $161.2 billion excluding interest. The 2026 lease, which Reuters reported in October, is $125.2 billion of it. If needed, Anthropic may pay rent on the 2026 lease in up to $42 billion of convertible notes, so the supplier finances its own invoice and can take equity for it. Google holds a $114.5 billion commitment through July 2033, plus an estimated $125 billion to $150 billion of further TPU capacity for 2028 to 2031, from Google and other TPU providers, outside the table. Amazon holds $110 billion through April 2036; Microsoft $44.9 billion through May 2033. Google and Amazon also hold Anthropic stock and notes, and AMD agreed in July to invest up to $5 billion alongside a hardware deal the S-1 now puts above $20 billion.

The softer half of the book is GPU rental, and the record shows how fast it grew. TEXXR logged the SpaceX deal at four sizes in under six months. On May 7 it was all of Colossus 1, more than 300 megawatts. On May 21 SpaceX’s own S-1 put it at $1.25 billion a month through May 2029, and a week later Musk called it a 180-day lease with 90 days’ notice. In September the draft prospectus showed up to $84.5 billion. The public S-1 says up to $120.5 billion, about $3.1 billion a month at full delivery: 2.5 times the May rate. Both sides can cancel on 90 days’ notice once the initial terms end in January and March 2027.

Two neoclouds carry conditions. Nscale’s $44.6 billion accrues only as capacity is delivered, and Nscale must use best efforts to finance the build within a set period; Bloomberg read Nscale’s own S-1 as Anthropic and Microsoft holding 85% of its $103 billion of contracts. Of Lambda’s $41.3 billion, $34.9 billion can be cancelled if Lambda does not secure the facility lease in time.

Signals in the filing and the coverage record, not trade ideas:

• The amended S-1. It should fill the third-quarter revenue figure, the run rate and the price range. Whether the $16.8 billion holds, and what the run rate says about September after the usage enforcement, is the first hard test of the slowdown.
• Compute expense once SpaceX reaches full delivery, expected in December 2026. At $3.1 billion a month, that one contract would cost 1.7 times Anthropic’s entire second-quarter compute bill of $1.85 billion a month, derived. The S-1 warns that operating margin may compress as capacity lands before the revenue it serves.
• January and March 2027, when the SpaceX agreements become cancellable. Keeping them is a statement about demand; ending them is a statement about cost.
• Delivery conditions at Nscale and Lambda. Bloomberg reported on October 19 that Nscale is in talks for a second deal worth about $45 billion; the first is still subject to Nscale’s financing.
• The 2028 bar the company set itself. Reuters’ sources put Anthropic’s 2028 revenue projection at $190 billion to $200 billion, about three times the third quarter annualised. Spreading each named contract evenly over its term gives roughly $115 billion a year, derived. Against that projection, compute would take more than half of revenue, above the 48% of the second quarter. Against flat revenue, it would exceed all of it. See the token ceiling for the demand side of that bet.
• The federal dispute. A Pentagon supply-chain-risk designation led clients to pause deal talks in March and is still in court; the S-1 also warns of selective targeting by government bodies.