The position layer
Situational Awareness LP
Six filings, from a $255m book to $13.7bn, priced forward against our own sessions. The long side was right for fifteen months. The hedge was in the right sector and the wrong direction.
Leopold Aschenbrenner launched the fund in 2024 with no professional investing history. It grew to about $45bn by early July 2026, then took heavy losses in the AI rout and sold the bulk of its public book to Citadel, with assets reported near $10bn (WSJ, FT, CNBC, Bloomberg, 2026-07-30). The published figures do not disclose a common denominator, so they are not a clean AUM comparison.
What follows is not that story. It is the filings: what the book held, and what each book would have done if held unchanged. The two are different, and only the second is checkable.
The book, filing by filing
Each book is priced held unchanged from its report date, marked at every quarter-end since. The large figure is the move over that leg alone; the small one is cumulative from the report date. Long is capital at risk. Put and call lines are the notional value of the underlying, which is not money anyone put up — so the three are never added.
| Side | At report | Names | Marked forward |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 filed 2025-02-12 6 positions · $255m gross | |||
| long | $255m | 6 (5 priced) |
2025-03-31
-27.7%
-28% cum
2025-06-30
+53.2%
+11% cum
2025-09-30
+13.0%
+25% cum
2025-12-31
-4.4%
+20% cum
2026-03-31
+10.8%
+33% cum
2026-06-30
no price
+116% cum
2026-07-30
-28.2%
+55% cum
|
| 2025-03-31 filed 2025-05-14 12 positions · $1.01bn gross | |||
| long | $546m | 11 (8 priced) |
2025-06-30
+108.2%
+108% cum
2025-09-30
+25.3%
+161% cum
2025-12-31
-13.5%
+125% cum
2026-03-31
-7.1%
+109% cum
2026-06-30
no price
+167% cum
2026-07-30
-18.7%
+117% cum
|
| call | $460m | 1 |
2025-06-30
-1.4%
-1% cum
2025-09-30
+49.8%
+48% cum
2025-12-31
+10.0%
+62% cum
2026-03-31
+19.6%
+94% cum
2026-06-30
+216.4%
+515% cum
2026-07-30
-34.7%
+301% cum
|
| 2025-06-30 filed 2025-08-14 9 positions · $2.12bn gross | |||
| long | $1.10bn | 7 (6 priced) |
2025-09-30
+37.8%
+38% cum
2025-12-31
-6.9%
+28% cum
2026-03-31
-8.4%
+17% cum
2026-06-30
no price
+44% cum
2026-07-30
-8.6%
+32% cum
|
| puta rise is against the holder | $570m | 1 (0 priced) |
2025-09-30
no price
cum
2025-12-31
no price
cum
2026-03-31
no price
cum
2026-06-30
no price
+135% cum
2026-07-30
-23.1%
+81% cum
|
| call | $453m | 1 |
2025-09-30
+49.8%
+50% cum
2025-12-31
+10.0%
+65% cum
2026-03-31
+19.6%
+97% cum
2026-06-30
+216.4%
+523% cum
2026-07-30
-34.7%
+307% cum
|
| 2025-09-30 filed 2025-11-14 28 positions · $4.14bn gross | |||
| long | $2.04bn | 15 (11 priced) |
2025-12-31
-22.6%
-23% cum
2026-03-31
+4.7%
-19% cum
2026-06-30
no price
+27% cum
2026-07-30
-22.0%
-1% cum
|
| puta rise is against the holder | $887m | 6 (5 priced) |
2025-12-31
-6.6%
-7% cum
2026-03-31
+0.8%
-6% cum
2026-06-30
no price
+59% cum
2026-07-30
-16.7%
+33% cum
|
| call | $996m | 2 |
2025-12-31
-8.4%
-8% cum
2026-03-31
+17.5%
+8% cum
2026-06-30
+185.0%
+207% cum
2026-07-30
-34.1%
+102% cum
|
| 2025-12-31 filed 2026-02-11 29 positions · $5.52bn gross | |||
| long | $3.90bn | 23 (15 priced) |
2026-03-31
+39.2%
+39% cum
2026-06-30
no price
+160% cum
2026-07-30
-29.1%
+84% cum
|
| puta rise is against the holder | $9m | 1 (0 priced) |
2026-03-31
no price
cum
2026-06-30
no price
-41% cum
2026-07-30
+20.1%
-29% cum
|
| call | $1.59bn | 4 (3 priced) |
2026-03-31
+14.7%
+15% cum
2026-06-30
no price
+155% cum
2026-07-30
-32.0%
+73% cum
|
| 2026-03-31 filed 2026-05-18 42 positions · $13.68bn gross | |||
| long | $3.82bn | 25 |
2026-06-30
+110.8%
+111% cum
2026-07-30
-31.6%
+44% cum
|
| puta rise is against the holder | $8.46bn | 11 |
2026-06-30
+70.2%
+70% cum
2026-07-30
-16.2%
+43% cum
|
| call | $1.36bn | 5 |
2026-06-30
+167.3%
+167% cum
2026-07-30
-30.8%
+85% cum
|
The latest book, position by position
Filed 2026-05-18 for the quarter ended 2026-03-31 — a snapshot up to 45 days old on the day it became public. Prices are as-traded closes from our own point-in-time sessions.
| Name | Side | Value | At report | 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH not covered sector ETF — not a company view | put | $2.04bn notional | 383.40 | +71.1% +71% cum | -23.1% +32% cum |
| NVDA dossier | put | $1.57bn notional | 174.40 | +14.7% +15% cum | -2.5% +12% cum |
| ORCL tracked | put | $1.07bn notional | 147.11 | -0.4% -0% cum | -13.0% -13% cum |
| AVGO tracked | put | $1.01bn notional | 309.51 | +22.0% +22% cum | +2.7% +25% cum |
| AMD tracked | put | $969m notional | 203.43 | +185.6% +186% cum | -16.4% +139% cum |
| BE dossier | long | $879m | 135.49 | +123.4% +123% cum | -31.6% +53% cum |
| SNDK tracked | long | $724m | 635.34 | +257.9% +258% cum | -43.7% +101% cum |
| MU dossier | put | $584m notional | 337.84 | +241.7% +242% cum | -24.2% +159% cum |
| CRWV dossier | long | $556m | 77.47 | +28.5% +28% cum | -25.8% -5% cum |
| TSM dossier | put | $535m notional | 337.95 | +41.3% +41% cum | -15.5% +19% cum |
| ASML dossier | put | $494m notional | 1320.83 | +50.6% +51% cum | -17.0% +25% cum |
| MU dossier | call | $422m notional | 337.84 | +241.7% +242% cum | -24.2% +159% cum |
| IREN dossier | long | $401m | 34.28 | +33.4% +33% cum | -16.3% +12% cum |
| CORZ tracked | long | $389m | 14.96 | +71.1% +71% cum | -14.8% +46% cum |
| SNDK tracked | call | $389m notional | 635.34 | +257.9% +258% cum | -43.7% +101% cum |
| TSM dossier | call | $355m notional | 337.95 | +41.3% +41% cum | -15.5% +19% cum |
| APLD dossier | long | $320m | 23.74 | +57.1% +57% cum | -25.0% +18% cum |
| INTC tracked | put | $159m notional | 44.13 | +216.4% +216% cum | -34.7% +107% cum |
| RIOT tracked | long | $142m | 12.36 | +121.5% +122% cum | -19.2% +79% cum |
| CRWV dossier | call | $141m notional | 77.47 | +28.5% +28% cum | -25.8% -5% cum |
| CLSK tracked | long | $104m | 8.51 | +71.0% +71% cum | -0.1% +71% cum |
| SEI not covered | long | $62m | 56.51 | +42.4% +42% cum | -46.0% -23% cum |
| BE dossier | call | $55m notional | 135.49 | +123.4% +123% cum | -31.6% +53% cum |
| TE not covered | long | $44m | 4.39 | +115.9% +116% cum | -60.8% -15% cum |
| BTDR tracked | long | $30m | 8.65 | +83.5% +83% cum | -30.1% +28% cum |
| PSIX not covered | long | $26m | 60.88 | -36.1% -36% cum | -34.6% -58% cum |
| GLW tracked | put | $21m notional | 135.97 | +87.9% +88% cum | -47.1% -1% cum |
| WYFI not covered | long | $21m | 11.91 | +226.2% +226% cum | -47.0% +73% cum |
| AMD tracked | long | $20m | 203.43 | +185.6% +186% cum | -16.4% +139% cum |
| BW not covered | long | $20m | 14.69 | -4.0% -4% cum | -43.7% -46% cum |
| SHAZ not covered | long | $18m | 22.73 | +272.5% +272% cum | -52.6% +76% cum |
| PUMP not covered | long | $13m | 14.41 | -0.5% -0% cum | -28.8% -29% cum |
| SMH not covered sector ETF — not a company view | long | $10m | 383.40 | +71.1% +71% cum | -23.1% +32% cum |
| INTC tracked | long | $9m | 44.13 | +216.4% +216% cum | -34.7% +107% cum |
| TSM dossier | long | $8m | 337.95 | +41.3% +41% cum | -15.5% +19% cum |
| INFY not covered | put | $7m notional | 13.51 | -22.4% -22% cum | +20.1% -7% cum |
| HIVE tracked | long | $6m | 1.90 | +91.6% +92% cum | -17.6% +58% cum |
| ASML dossier | long | $6m | 1320.83 | +50.6% +51% cum | -17.0% +25% cum |
| MU dossier | long | $6m | 337.84 | +241.7% +242% cum | -24.2% +159% cum |
| GLW tracked | long | $1m | 135.97 | +87.9% +88% cum | -47.1% -1% cum |
| NVDA dossier | long | $0m | 174.40 | +14.7% +15% cum | -2.5% +12% cum |
Not in the figures above
- No price series — BITF. Held, and outside our sessions, so excluded from every total rather than carried at zero.
What a 13F cannot say
- Each book is priced held UNCHANGED from its report date. These are counterfactuals — what that filing would have done — never the manager's realised P&L, which depends on trades no outsider can see.
- An option line reports the value of the UNDERLYING, not the premium paid. There is no dollar profit or loss on an option in a 13F, so none is stated here.
- A rise in a put's underlying is a move AGAINST the holder. A put may be an outright bet or a hedge and the filing cannot say which.
- Ordinary short stock is not reported in a 13F at all. An absence is not evidence.
- A 13F is a snapshot filed up to 45 days after the quarter it describes.
- An index or sector ETF line is a view on a sector, never on a company.
Read alongside
- When Genius Failed — Long-Term Capital ran a convergence trade its banks could see. Leverage did not only amplify the loss; it published the position.
- The AI Capex Supercycle — The long side of this book, as a trend rather than a position.
- The Memory Wall — Where the sharpest July drawdowns in the book actually sat.